Reading the odds: prices as probabilities

Every market on Outcomer shows a price in cents. That single number carries more information than it looks like — once you can read it, the whole board becomes easier to scan.

Price is probability

A Yes share at 30¢ implies a 30% chance the event happens. The No side is simply the mirror — it trades near 70¢. If the two do not add up to roughly 100¢, that gap is the spread, the small cushion between the best buy and sell prices.

What moves the number

• News — a result, a poll, an announcement.
• Flow — a large buyer or seller pushing the price toward their view.
• Time — as an event nears, uncertainty collapses toward 0¢ or 100¢.

Watching how fast a price reacts tells you how confident the market is. A number that snaps back after a spike is a market that disagreed with the move.