What is a prediction market?
A 2-minute primer on how buying and selling Yes/No shares turns opinions into real, tradable prices.
Outcomer Team · Jun 28, 2026
A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a match, a price level, a launch date. Each question resolves to Yes or No, and you buy shares in the side you believe in.
Prices sit between 0¢ and 100¢, and you can read them straight as a probability. A market trading at 62¢ for Yes is the crowd saying it thinks the event is about 62% likely to happen.
Why prices beat opinions
Anyone can have a take. A market makes people back their take with money, and that changes everything — confident, well-informed traders move the price more than loud ones. The result is a live, honest estimate that updates the moment new information lands.
How a trade works
- Pick a market and a side — Yes or No.
- Buy shares at the current price. Each share pays out $1 if your side is correct.
- Sell any time before the market closes, or hold to resolution.
On Outcomer you can practise all of this with virtual money first — no risk, same mechanics. When you are ready, the exact same skills carry over to real trades.